While I crushed my picks in Wild Card Weekend, I struggled in the divisional round. The Houston Texans couldn't cover a whopping nine points vs. the Kansas City Chiefs, the Washington Commanders pulled off a massive upset in the Lions' den and the Baltimore Ravens yet again fell short in the postseason. I really thought this year was going to be different.
Who are you rooting for this weekend? Personally, I don't want a Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl rematch. I want chaos. We need Jayden Daniels to become the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to start a Super Bowl, and for him to face eventual NFL MVP Josh Allen, who has the most playoff wins by any starting quarterback with zero Super Bowl starts. Could that happen?
Let's jump into some picks. As always, credit to the CBS Sports Research team for making me sound smart.
Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus
Playoff ATS record: 4-5-1
Playoff straight up record: 7-3
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
These two division rivals split the season series, although it's worth mentioning Jalen Hurts missed most of Washington's victory over Philly with a concussion. The first meeting between these two squads was a horrific offensive showing for both teams, honestly. Saquon Barkley scored two touchdowns in what was a 23-0 Eagles run that secured the 26-18 victory, but kicker Jake Elliott missed two field goal attempts and an extra point while Hurts did not look especially sharp. Daniels threw for just 191 yards, one touchdown and one interception, and his leading wide receiver had just 10 yards.
The second meeting, a 36-33 victory for Washington, was much more interesting -- even with Hurts' absence. Barkley rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter, then just 41 yards in the final three quarters. Hurts being out obviously hurts Barkley, but could we see something similar this week if Hurts isn't able to be as mobile due to his knee injury? Washington finished with the third-worst rush defense in the NFL this year, but it would help if Barkley was the only threat for Philly on the ground. Maybe Dan Quinn, Joe Whitt Jr. and the defense learned some lessons on how to contain the best running back in the NFL.
I'm going to take the points in this matchup, and I'll go ahead and call for the upset. Why? Two reasons: I feel like the Eagles offense hasn't looked very good in the playoffs. They slept-walked through an easy victory over the Green Bay Packers, then Nick Sirianni or Kellen Moore allowed the Los Angeles Rams a shot to win their game late in the fourth quarter after deciding to roll out an injured quarterback on a bootleg for a loss of 7 yards on a second down. Hurts hasn't passed for more than 131 yards this postseason, and A.J. Brown is more of a bookworm than All-Pro wideout these days.
The other reason why I'm taking Washington is because it has the better quarterback in this matchup. I won't list all of his accomplishments, but anyone who watches football can see Daniels plays like a veteran. It's pretty incredible. From his accuracy going downfield, comfortability/composure in the pocket, decision-making and his legs, it's all great. He has more wins than negative plays (sack, fumble or interceptions) this postseason. He will be the sixth rookie quarterback to start a conference championship game. The previous five all had top-three scoring defenses. The Commanders rank 18th. Daniels is clearly special. Why doubt him now?
The pick: Commanders +6
Projected score: Commanders 24-20
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
People will go back and dive deeply into what went wrong for Kansas City and right for Buffalo in that Week 11 matchup, but the Chiefs are a different team in the playoffs. In the regular season, Kansas City went 0-6-1 against the spread when favored by six or more points. Sportsbooks were comfortable listing the Chiefs as 8-point favorites vs. the Texans last week, and Vegas was right, as the Chiefs covered as big favorites for the first time all season (unless you waited to bet the spread right before kickoff).
When it comes to the Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes series, it's currently tied 4-4. Three of those eight matchups have come in the playoffs, and Mahomes has won every single one of them. Expect Travis Kelce to play a role in this matchup. Maybe that doesn't sound like a hot take, but he caught just two passes for 8 yards in the first matchup with Buffalo, and had the worst statistical season since his rookie campaign, catching 97 passes for 823 yards and just three touchdowns. Naturally, Kelce then exploded for a season-high 117 yards receiving and a touchdown in the first game of the playoffs. He's a postseason legend. No player has more 100-yard receiving games in the playoffs than him (9).
I think this game could come down to who wins or loses the turnover battle -- similar to Buffalo's last game vs. Baltimore. The Bills committed just eight turnovers this season, which ranked best in the league. The Chiefs weren't far behind with 14 turnovers, but consider the fact that they haven't turned the ball over since that loss in Buffalo. If it's not the turnover battle, the Bills' ability to get the Chiefs offense off the field will be important. Kansas City punted just twice vs. the Texans compared to its five scoring drives (ignoring the strategic safety).
Sorry, but I'm not going to bet on a team to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs.
The pick: Chiefs -1.5
Projected score: Chiefs 26-23
