James Cook has had one of the quietest 1,000-plus yard, 15-plus rushing touchdown seasons I can remember.
He eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark in a meaningless Week 18 game against the Patriots, and despite his super-steady season, from a national perspective, the third-year runner took a backseat to Josh Allen during the quarterback's most efficient, MVP-caliber season yet.
The Bills cruised to the AFC East title, having clinched the division on Dec. 1, and were locked into the No. 2 seed on the final week of the regular season. Allen fluctuated from MVP frontrunner to likely second-place finisher from September to early January.
Meanwhile, the Bills' run game has become the secret weapon of this team that might not be too much of a secret anymore, especially after the first two rounds of the playoffs, as they enter their AFC Championship bout against the Chiefs.
Broncos rush defense (reg. season): 33.6% success rate allowed (best in football)
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) January 20, 2025
Bills v Broncos last week: 50% success rate
Ravens rush defense (reg. season): 35.8% success rate allowed (2nd best)
Bills v Ravens: 55.6% success rate
Worst game of year for both run defenses
Staggering, right? There is no doubt whatsoever -- Cook and Co. will be vital in the AFC Championship game Sunday night.
And speaking of success rate -- which labels a play as successful if it gains 40% of the needed yardage on first down, 60% on second down and 100% on third and fourth downs -- the Bills' run game has become centered around the avoidance of zero-yard or negative-yard rushes.
Counting the playoffs, Cook has had 15% of his runs go for zero or negative yards, the 11th-lowest rate among the 46 running backs with 100-plus carries. Fascinatingly, nine of the 10 backs with a lower rate in that advanced stat also had a lower percentage of eight-plus defenders in the box on their respective runs this season. The only back with a lower rate of runs that have gone for no gain or lost yardage and a higher stacked-box rate is Derrick Henry.
(Note: 22.7% of all Cook's 247 rush attempts to date have come with eight-plus defenders in the box, and his 4.6 yards-per-carry rate in those scenarios is the fifth highest among those 100-plus carry qualifiers.)
For as efficient as Cook has been, it's not all about him. Buffalo's offensive line has transformed into a unit that can mash the opponent over and over throughout the course of a game.
There aren't many (really any at all) advanced metrics for individual offensive linemen, particularly when it comes to blocking for the run game.
There is, however, yards before contact per rush, which, of course, does have a running back's elusiveness baked in, but typically provides a strong case for the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of a blocking unit.
This season, in non-garbage time, Bills' run attempts have averaged 1.70 yards before contact per rush, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. After the Week 12 bye and not counting the regular-season finale in which Buffalo rested starters, that figure has jumped to 1.98.
In the divisional-round loss a season ago, Cook only averaged 3.4 yards per tote on 18 carries. It was Ty Johnson (seven carries for 40 yards), and Allen (12 for 72) who anchored the Bills' 182 yards on the ground. In Week 11's win over the Chiefs, Cook only mustered 22 yards on nine carries. Altogether, Buffalo ran the ball 31 times for a mere 104 yards -- 3.4 yards per carry.
It feels like, despite the victory against Kansas City, the relatively lacking rushing success in that contest served as an inflection point for the run-game element of this team. Earlier this week, I documented Joe Brady's post-bye emphasis of deploying six offensive linemen, and that grouping has been the driver of more ground-game efficiency for the Bills ever since the bye that immediately followed the win over the Chiefs.
From Week 13 to Week 17 and counting the two playoff games to date against elite run defenses, the Bills' 0.236 EPA per rush is far and away the best in the NFL -- the Ravens are second at 0.100. Buffalo's 55% success rate on the ground is also tops in the league.
Using those same parameters -- because Kansas City also rested starters in Week 18 -- the Chiefs defense is 20th in EPA per rush allowed and 15th in success rate.
The Bills must get Cook, Johnson and rookie Ray Davis involved right away and lean on the Kansas City defensive front seven throughout this AFC title game. Quickly on Johnson -- a whopping 17.1% of his 41 rushes have gone for 10-plus yards this season, the second-highest rate among 75 running backs with at least 40 carries.
And with Buffalo's run game, watch for runs to the right, behind the towering, athletic bulldozer at right tackle, Spencer Brown, and the extra offensive lineman, Alec Anderson, who's taken 113 of his 181 snaps as the "tight end" on the right side of Buffalo's formation.
Why's that?
Cook averages 5.61 yards on runs to the right, the highest figure in the NFL among the 25 backs with at least 200 carries this season.
Allen is Allen. But it's clear -- Cook and Co. must play a key role for the Bills to win at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.
