Remember senior superlatives? There was most athletic, most changed, most likely to succeed, etc. Well, who would you have picked for most pivotal?
Um ... what? OK, so that particular superlative might be better left for player evaluations, but just so we're all clear on the terminology, what I'm looking to do here is identify the player on each team with the potential to change the Fantasy Baseball landscape the most, whether because of his own performance or the ripple effect that his role might have.
Another way of putting it is that I'm especially curious to see how things turn out for these 30 players. I'll be keeping a close watch on them in spring training, and I suggest you do, too.
The best way to sum up how much is riding on Lawrence Butler's 2025 is this: Chris Towers has him as a bust while I have him as a breakout. Though Butler always flashed interesting tools, neither the minor-league track record nor the prospect pedigree back up the .302 batting average, 20 homers, 14 steals, and .943 OPS that he delivered over the final three months last year, so how he follows up the performance will go a long way toward determining how we regard him moving forward.
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Puk flopped as a starter for the Marlins early last season but has always thrived as a reliever and seemed to find another gear after being traded to the Diamondbacks, putting together a 1.32 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, and 14.2 K/9 over 30 appearances. Justin Martinez enters as the incumbent closer, but the Diamondbacks have made clear that the role isn't decided yet. Puk could be a maestro in it.
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You could say even more is riding on Ronald Acuna's recovery from a torn ACL, but I have fewer concerns about how that's going to play out in the long run, even if the immediate timeline is murky. For Spencer Strider, though, it's fair to wonder if he'll even be the same guy following an internal bracing procedure for a stretched-out UCL. Our lasting memory is of a one-of-one strikeout artist pirouetting away from his latest victim as his fastball catches a tailwind through the strike zone.
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Jackson Holliday's rookie season couldn't have gone much worse, but he's too young to dismiss and remains the favorite to start at second base for the Orioles. He's being drafted at about the same point he was last year even though enthusiasm seems muted by comparison, but another year of disappointment could see his stock tumble, in Dynasty or otherwise.
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Perhaps the most pivotal player of the entire spring, Kristian Campbell could shape the destiny of several high-profile stars if he proves ready for a job. His most logical destination would be second base, which is the position Alex Bregman is supposed to play if the Red Sox decide they can still stomach Rafael Devers' defense at third base. Devers seems insistent on staying right where he is, but Campbell's performance could force a change.
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The Cubs have left third base wide open for Matt Shaw to claim it, but we've seen in more recent years that top prospects aren't always up to the task, particularly when, like Shaw, they have just over a year of minor-league experience. If, however, he can claim the job and avoid a prolonged adjustment period, he has legitimate five-category upside.
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Up until last year, Luis Robert's career trajectory pointed to him becoming a Fantasy first-rounder someday, peaking with his 38-homer, 20-steal 2023. But he cratered to a .224 batting average and .657 OPS last season, his strikeout rate spiking to 33 percent. Did an early-season hip flexor strain throw off his timing and mechanics, or has playing for a moribund White Sox franchise taken his heart out of the game? This season should reveal one way or another.
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Nick Lodolo's final numbers are what they are, but through 11 starts, he had a 2.76 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 9.6 K/9, giving the look of a burgeoning ace in Fantasy. But that's when he developed a blister on his left middle finger that prevented him from gripping his curveball properly, and his efforts to compensate led to a season-ending sprain of the finger. If an offseason of rest brings about the early-season version of Lodolo again, it could be a game-changer for Fantasy.
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Chase DeLauter seemed on the verge of a call-up when he hit .520 (13 for 25) with four homers for the Guardians last spring, but then he broke his left foot in May, the third such injury to that same foot. His minor-league career has been so often interrupted that it's not clear he's ready for a big-league opportunity, despite his quality production so far, but the Guardians have an opening in right field and should give him a serious look while he's actually healthy.
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Nolan Jones also claimed this spot last year, seeking validation for a breakthrough season that saw him deliver 20 homers and 20 steals with a .297 batting average. But rather than validation, he found ruin, causing his Fantasy stock to plummet even as the echoes of that 2023 season continue to reverberate. It may be that an achy back and knee were to blame for his disappointing follow-up, in which case everyone's sleeping on Jones now.
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First, Jackson Jobe has to win a rotation spot, but that seems like a foregone conclusion for a player who was widely regarded as the game's top pitching prospect before Roki Sasaki entered the scene. Given his elite pedigree and presumed roster spot, there's an unusual amount of skepticism for Jobe, which may have to something with his slightly underwhelming strikeout and walk numbers in the minors last year. Early reports say he's added a couple pitches to address the issue.
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If you've read my sleepers article or listened to the Valentine's Day episode of Fantasy Baseball Today, you know I'm fully bought into Daikin Park (formerly Minute Maid Park) being perfectly suited for Isaac Paredes, projecting him for numbers similar to the ones Alex Bregman delivered for the Astros in recent years. But there's a chance I'm wrong, of course, and given Paredes' bottom-of-the-barrel exit velocities, he could be a total dud if he doesn't take full advantage of the Crawford Boxes to his pull side.
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Among the several part-time relievers transitioning to full-time starters this year, Kris Bubic has gotten some of the least attention, but remember, he had a couple of transformational starts just before succumbing to Tommy John surgery in April 2023, showing never-before-seen bat-missing ability with his firmer changeup and newfound slider. It continued in his return last year (albeit in relief) with a 2.67 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 11.6 K/9, so now it's just a matter of him sustaining it over longer outings.
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Yup, we've officially reached the point where Mike Trout is a wild card for Fantasy, still demonstrating elite capabilities on a per-game basis but having missed too many games over the past four years (nearly 60 percent) for anyone to view him with rose-colored glasses. And yet I'll point to Ken Griffey Jr.'s 2005 (or, shoot, Chris Sale last year) to remind you that a series of injury-plagued seasons doesn't represent a permanent reality.
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The Dodgers have several candidates for this spot, from foreign signings like Roki Sasaki and Hye Seong Kim to injury returnees like Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin, but with how much Fantasy capital is going into Shohei Ohtani, we're all waiting on pins and needles to see how his return from a torn labrum and attempted return to pitching might impact him offensively. He wasn't so prolific of a base-stealer back when he was dividing his attention between pitching and hitting, and the fact he tore his labrum on a stolen base attempt might cause him to back down even more.
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So much more hinges on Xavier Edwards' 2025 performance than just his own Fantasy standing. He represents a class of player -- the slap-hitting speedster -- thought to be extinct in the modern game but brought back to life with his .328 batting average and 31 steals in 70 games last year. Unfortunately, that's not a large enough sample to confirm his legitimacy, and while his minor-league numbers the past two years are similar, there's simply no comparison to what major-league defenses can do with batted balls.
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Back issues brought Christian Yelich down from his two-year peak of MVP and near-MVP production in 2018 and 2019. The closest he's come to repeating that production since then was, ironically, last year, before finally succumbing to back surgery in August. Ask anyone who's ever had back surgery, and they'll tell you it's no cure-all, but can we at least trust Yelich to get back to doing what he did last year? Is there a chance he'll be even better?
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"If only he could stay healthy" was the refrain for Royce Lewis, who hit .303 with a .945 OPS over the first 94 games of his career, spread across three seasons. But then when he finally stayed healthy for an extended stretch -- i.e., the next 58 games of his career -- he hit .207 with a .620 OPS. We still don't have a firm grasp of who he is, but 2025 should reveal it once and for all ... unless he gets hurt again.
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An oblique injury has diminished the intrigue somewhat, sidelining Sean Manaea for the start of the season, but there's still no bigger questions for the Mets than if he can sustain the ace production brought about by his reinvented delivery midway through 2024. To recap, he had a front-row seat to a Chris Sale start on July 25 and came away so impressed that he decided to throw from the same low three-quarters delivery, finding immediate success with a 3.09 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 over his final 12 starts.
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Cody Bellinger's resurgent season for the Cubs two years ago -- when he hit .307 with 26 homers, 20 steals, and an .881 OPS -- seemed too good to be true at the time, and indeed, he took a step back in his follow-up last year. But his move to Yankee Stadium, with its short porch in right field, represents his best chance to recapture something close to MVP-caliber production, only more legitimately this time.
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The Phillies roster is on fairly solid footing with the exception of the closer role, where they're relying on a reliever who missed almost all of last season with an impingement in his right elbow, eventually undergoing surgery in July. Even in leagues where saves are scarce, Jordan Romano is being drafted with great reservation, but on a team like the Phillies, he could receive ample save chances.
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Jared Jones came out of the gate hot as a rookie with a 3.05 ERA and an 18 percent swinging-strike rate through 10 starts, but the ERA was 5.17 and the swinging-strike rate only 11 percent over his next 12 starts. He still retains much of his shine from those first 10 starts, but it may be that his arsenal isn't deep enough to sustain anywhere close to that sort of production. The addition of a two-seamer this offseason could help.
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Charlie Brown is to Lucy with the football as Fantasy Baseballers are to Nick Pivetta, but in fairness to us, the longtime enigma has found a home at a pitcher's park for the first time. He's long been a noteworthy bat-misser and has made major strides with his strike-throwing the past couple years, leaving home runs as his own real sore spot. Will Petco Park be the salve that reduces his ERA to a more tolerable number?
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As much as I'd like to fantasize about what Robbie Ray's improved velocity in a brief glimpse last year could mean, the only choice here is Tyler Fitzgerald, whose .280 batting average and 25-homer, 29-steal pace have been treated with utter contempt. I'm not so inclined to believe in them either given his bloated strikeout rate and poor contact quality, and yet his production in the minors the past few years was just as impressive.
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I've said that the very concept of the slap-hitting speedster hinges on Xavier Edwards' 2025, and well, Victor Robles is just the less extreme version. His peak exit velocities at least give him a chance at some over-the-fence power, but if he's going to succeed for Fantasy Baseball, it's by way of batting average and stolen bases. As with Edwards, a half-season is enough for us to take it seriously, but we'll need a full season to confirm it.
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We could do the Jordan Walker thing again, I guess, but I'm more curious to see if Lars Nootbaar's redoubled efforts to put the ball in the air more finally yield the sort of production befitting of his premium exit velocities. He put in good work with Nolan Arenado -- an expert at elevating to his pull side -- last offseason but said that a fractured rib and strained oblique early in 2024 undid his progress by preventing him from conducting the necessary exercises. We'll see a year later if that explanation rings true.
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Here we go again with Jonathan Aranda, who once again appears poised to claim the Rays' DH opening, provided Eloy Jimenez doesn't mess it up. A broken finger revoked Aranda's claim to the role last spring, and between that and a strained oblique, his swing was messed up for a stretch. But I'll remind you he hit .339 with 25 homers and a 1.063 OPS in 95 games for Triple-A Durham two years ago and showed signs of regaining that form after returning from the oblique injury last year.
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Though Kumar Rocker's fight for a rotation spot and efforts to build an arsenal around his best-in-class slider would also make him a fine choice here, we're likely a year or so away from his make-or-break moment. More is riding on Evan Carter's ability to bounce back from the lumbar sprain that wrecked his rookie season, particularly since there are also concerns about his platoon splits and contact quality.
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A third-round pick just a year ago and an early-round fixture for his entire career, Bo Bichette is being drafted outside of the top 125 players so far, a response to him batting a career-low .225 during an injury-plagued season. But he's still a career .290 hitter and, at 27, stands a good chance of returning to that standard if he's genuinely past the calf issues that plagued him last year.
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If nothing else, Dylan Crews has demonstrated he can be a prolific base-stealer in the majors, which might be enough to sustain him in Fantasy, but we're still waiting for the bat to deliver on the promise that made him the second overall pick in 2023. Even the minor-league production last year was kind of underwhelming, but the underlying exit velocity and plate discipline readings have remained strong throughout.
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